Surprise!

I didn't mean to be gone so long....I got the chance to take a break, and took it. (Or, to use Mark Twain's line, "The rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated".)Didn't get much chance to take a break from trading though. When good trades keep appearing, it would be irrational not to take them.Just when I thought it couldn't be much better than the action in September, October, and

What goes Up...,

Up, up, up, down, down, down....I am impressed with all the movement in the forex markets. And pretty tired. But happy.I've had some good trading this week, and some difficulties. When markets ratchet up and down so quickly and you need to put on large positions, you place your trade and within 15 seconds are thousands richer or poorer. Usually poorer when you're trading breakouts like I do.

Wow #2! Up 17.7% this week alone! - Readers respond-- IFCN Wk 54 –Wed- Equity: $2,269.50

I believe that I get some of the more interesting emails any trader could receive.The people who read this blog are not average. Most have serious intent to trade with a definable edge and go to great lengths to understand it and monetize it.Most of you know that I use a private money management algorithm for trading ONS and FirstStrikePlus. I have no complaints about it, but many have

---Wow!--- Up 10.9% in One Day! – IFCN Wk 54 –Tue- Equity: $2,185.61

Wow!That's all one can say after a day like today. After the Fed news came out this afternoon, markets bolted higher, from currencies to bonds, and commodities like natural gas and silver.We finally got filled on our last FirstStrikePlus trade of the week, short the Usd/Jpy @ 89.21.The Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate to a range from zero to 0.25 percent, making the U.S. dollar the

Is the Dollar the New Yen? -- IFCN Wk 54 –Mon- Equity: $1,970.53

The euro traded near 9 week highs against the dollar on the belief that the Federal Reserve will cut the target rate for overnight lending to a record lows. If the Fed keeps lowering interest it will make virtually every other currency a carry trade against the dollar, similar to the situation that existed with the Japanese Yen for so many years.If this indeed starts turning the other currencies

Dollar Weakness Forces Higher Profits! - IFCN Wk 54 –Mon- Equity: $1,928.48

The dollar is beginning to lose the steam of “fear” buying. Last week's FirstStrikePlus and OneNightStand trades were profitable because outside interests can finally see that buying dollars as a temporary stopgap doesn't solve the problem of how to monetize value from current market imbalances.When you are trading brutally robust methods and the rest of the world is unsure of what positions to

Dollar Slips Further! -- IFCN Wk 53 –Fri- Equity: $1,843.90.

Friday was an interesting day. The major interest was the action in the Japanese yen.Late Thursday I got a short FirstStrikePlus Gpb/Jpy trade. I wasn't particularly thrilled with that trade, then or now. The trade was a valid one, but it showed little followthrough after entry.I wasn't terribly keen about getting any additional OneNightStand sells in either the Gpb/Jpy or Usd/Jpy, and I

Character Counts! -- IFCN Wk 53 –Thu- Equity: $1,851.14.

-A Favorite Quote-J.P. Morgan: "Lending is not based primarily on money or property. No sir, the first thing is character."Too bad the world eschewed that principle after J.P. passed on. They'll go back to his type of thinking in the future.Character counts. In lending, in finding someone to marry, making a deal – and the trust in the capital markets by traders.I completely believe that

Dollar Weakens FSP Responds! -- IFCN Wk 53 –Wed- Equity: $1,767.89.

New equity watermark today! $1.767.89. That is a 253.5% increase in the last 53 weeks. At the very least-- better than T-Bills.Any idea how many trades we took in the last year, both FirstStrike and OneNightStand-- ending this Monday morning? Definitely more than enough to be statistically viable. -----The euro strengthened in the last two trading days, trading near two week highs vs. the

Transition Week Returns Profits! -- IFCN Wk 53 –Mon- Equity: $1,623.81.

After the “terrible” employment news on Friday, currencies started gaining on the dollar, along with XAG and XAU (silver and gold). That helped out the Challenge account this morning with the XAG giving us additional profits, almost creating a wash after all the action we experienced last week.When the dollar starts weakening, we could easily start making large gains from FirstStrike AND the XAG

Traders Respond #2-- IFCN Wk 52 –Fri- Equity: $1,597.81

I'm posting some more of your emails-- readers and successful traders who were willing to share your experiences.Your responses are valuable to others because trading is a very mental process. As a mechanical process, almost anyone can physically enter a specific forex trade consistently. Nevertheless, personal attitudes about value and conviction are involved, making consistent execution of a

Traders Respond #1-- IFCN Wk 52 –Thu- Equity: $1,600.25

I got a plethora of emails from intelligent and brave traders who were willing to share their experiences.I will share a few in this post and share some more later. These responses are incredibly valuable to others as they delineate the process successful traders must traverse._______---- +182.36% ----Hi Joel,In your Blog, you asked about other people's results.I started following your methods (

FirstStrike Plus Is on a Roll! -- IFCN Wk 52 –Wed- Equity: $1,568.34

As the currencies have little strength this week, the short Sterling, and Sterling/Yen trades are doing quite well. Amazingly the short Usd/Jpy and short Usd/Chf are doing ok too. As this group of specific trades rarely profit at the same time, it will be interesting to see which, if any, remain profitable by the beginning of next week.While the FirstStrike trades increased in value, the XAG

The Trend..., Is! -- IFCN Wk 52 –Tue- Equity: $1,549.88.

After Monday's opening and the taking of a couple of profits from Sterling dominated trades – the Pound promptly started falling decisively, triggering the FirstStrike Plus sales of gbp/usd and the gbp/jpy. At the same time, we received a new sale in usd/jpy seen below.While these profitable trades were stacking up, the XAG position took a lot of heat, silver dropping $1.00/oz from Friday's

Challenge Account- 226.3 % Gain after 1 Year! -- IFCN Wk 52 –Mon- Equity: $1,631.75

Some would be beating their chests after a great return like I experienced with the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge account this past year. I'm not. At least not very much. I've had great returns before, and less wonderful returns too.I happen to know that this year we've had some very significant events contributing to the gains, major financial shifts that don't get repeated that often. Also,

Thanksgiving Pause -- IFCN Wk 51 –Fri- Equity: $1,656.77

With this being a fairly large Holiday week (Thanksgiving-USA), very little action took place on Thursday.Friday, the Euro slid 200+ pip vs. the Dollar but the Sterling held quite nicely. It looks like we might be able to collect a few profits by Monday's opening. Nevertheless, the week showed decent gains by the end of the week - much from the rise in XAG. (silver)There are various reports

Think and Prosper! -- IFCN Wk 51 –Wed- Equity: $1,675.49

Thinking is obviously not popular today. Just a glance at the world's financial climate makes that clear. Now, most people are rewarded for following others' instructions, not their own thinking. That's fine if you are making a burger but not good when you are making financial decisions that ultimately impact the wealth of billions of others.. Tipping a 20 ton balanced boulder off a mountain

Should We Thank Mr. O. for the current Rally? -- IFCN Wk 51 –Tue- Equity: $1,686.78

Obama is being credited with the recent rally in the Stock market. It's been reported (admittedly by kooks) that he can cure cancer, make the lame walk; and now all he has to do is.., raise the dead.He might want to start with Detroit and the current proposal for resurrecting the auto industry.The Detroit automakers only think they have trouble right now. Nothing compared to what they'll have

Rally Anyone?-- IFCN Wk 51 –Mon- Equity: $1,493.55

It is amazing that we haven't had much of a drawdown since we made equity highs almost a month ago.This Monday morning we didn't get the chance to exit any of the FirstStrike Plus trades held over from last week, namely the long Gbp/Usd from 1.5126 and the short Usd/Jpy from 95.39.It was close on the Usd/Jpy. The open (95.44) was just a few pips higher than our short entry- I wouldn't have

Calm Week Preserves Capital!-- IFCN Wk 50 – Fri- Equity: $1,504.39

This was a turnaround day for many markets. Not many of the ones we were in - maybe XAG (silver). We have had so many apparent turnarounds in silver that we will have to see $11/oz or greater to have that confidence.The swings in stocks and other capital makets this week caused many great losses. Due to our volatility adjusted stance, we have weathered the recent storms quite well.This isn't

“You thought I said what?”---H. Paulson- IFCN Wk 50 –Wed- Equity: $1,439.60

We got a few more FirstStrikePlus trades. For a short while this morning it looked like we were going to have a very good up-move in the Euro and Sterling. Then they reversed as quick as they started up.So, we got stopped out of the eur/usd and usd/chf. Still no trade in the gbp/jpy. Maybe there won't be one this week.Chop continues as individuals and large companies fear the worst. (

Show us the Money?-- IFCN Wk 50 –Tue- Equity: $1,529.10

So--- we've all heard about the billions of dollars given to banks to improve liquidity and to ease the problems with getting money back in the the financial system, via either loans or credit guarantees.What don't we see any of that money showing up anywhere that could do any of us some good?There is a term people need to begin understanding- “quantitative easing”. (Hint: Japan has been doing

The Calm!-- IFCN Wk 50 –Mon- Equity: $1,479.31

The currency markets are in a self-imposed quagmire. That's fine.If they calm down enough, when they start moving again, the potential for gain is much greater.The week's current FirstStrikePlus trade:Eur/Usd: Long @ 1.2723, stop 1.2508. FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade

FirstStrikePlus- 5 Profits!-- IFCN Wk 50 –Mon- Equity: $1,527.65

I didn't feel the need to post very much last week. The negativity is so thick out there that you could cut it with a chainsaw. Highlighting negativity doesn't help a trader's perspective.It must run its course. It will.I am actually extremely positive about the potential in the currency markets over the next few months. We could have some annoying markets, but trends are inevitable after all

Dollar Resurgence Builds Profits!-- IFCN Wk 49 – Wed- Equity: $1,480.65

All the week's FirstStrike Plus trades are in positive territory. The trend week I was looking for showed up- just in the opposite direction from what I would have expected. Another example of why I take the trades anyway, even though my mind might not like it.Some extremely so. The short Gbp/Jpy trade started last week, which didn't get exited this Monday because of insufficient profits--

Rangebound Trade Continues-- IFCN Wk 49 – Tue- Equity: $1,530.10

There isn't a lot of activity going on in the currencies, other than ranging trade that develops after large moves like we've seen in previous weeks. Banking institutions and trading firms are testing to see how committed their trading cohorts are to defending their positions, causing many false starts and aborted moves.In general, it is wise to have smaller commitments when this type of market

Positions Maintain Status Quo! -IFCN Wk 48 – Fri- $1,554.20

Another choppy week due to the forex markets trying to resume more normal volatility. There are potential profits from this week's current trades, but nothing to stir the imagination. We can expect to get greater profits after the markets get closer to “normal”. When smaller weekly volatility becomes typical again we will be able to trade larger size. Then some decent profits can accrue when

Currency Rally Fizzles! IFCN Wk 48 – Thu- Equity: $1,585.43

After the brief rally in the currencies, they turned around and now the FirstStrike positions put on early in the week-- 3 which didn't get stopped out --  are now in profit mode.It seems the world is trying to figure out how their great gift will be of benefit to them.  It may take a week or two.Silver is still holding its own fairly well, last checked it was $10.15.  TOTAL Equity: $1,585.43.

Currency Rally Continues! IFCN Wk 48 – Wed- Equity: $1,643.66.

After the push upwards yesterday, most currencies (except JPY) are gaining on the dollar. Suits me. Apparently with the election going in their favor, Europe believes there is hope for their future.There is hope for them, temporarily. Drunkards are always happy when there is more free drink available. Until it is all over, which in the case of a world economic financial system, will take years

Dollar weakens Dramatically! IFCN Wk 48 – Tue- Equity: $1,577.92.

It's nice to see the Eur/Usd,the Gbp/Usd and Gbp/Jpy go higher-- even if FSP trades this week are positioned the wrong way. Not that I like the Challenge account losing money, but it is good to see the currency pairs holding well against the dollar – right in the price area where they should. Besides, my other accounts are enjoying this burst of activity. Notably: London Squeeze, which got me

FirstStrikePlus Reversal Protocol-- IFCN Wk 48 – Mon- $1,563.21

We're getting trades, just not very profitable ones. But then again, our exits of last week haven't been too bad and the FirstStrikePlus concept of reversing existing trades has proven to be cost saving-- saving of the total stop being hit on the previous losing position. And XAG is holding.I've received numerous questions about the protocol of reversing a trade in a pair from long to short

Pretty Good Week! -IFCN Wk 47 – Fri- $1,558.01

Not too bad! I thought a number of times that this week might not be so good, but finally the XAG (silver) position helped push up the weekly numbers. There may be more of that in the future too.Here's last week's Friday recap:The data below is as of Friday's close, Oct. 31, 2008:Start of week equity: $1,428.36OneNightStand Exit(s) on 10/27/08 :*eur/usd: Short @1.2728, out at 1.2566 for 162 pips

The Chop Continues! -IFCN Wk 47 – Thu- $1,455.40

One day you're at completely new equity highs, and the next-- you're down more than 10% those highs. Welcome to the world of high volatility!The Eur/Usd shot up strongly early today and then dropped like a rock. Same with silver. And the other forex pairs.Doesn't mean that the moves are done, but it appears we will still have to wait a bit until they get stronger. Indecision is still the

Perversity Rules- New Equity Highs! -IFCN Wk 47 – Wed - $1,667.31

I am surprised but happy that we got filled on all of our trades so quickly. A different wind is blowing in the forex market this week. The wind is up for most currencies.It definitely looks like the dollar top is in. All the self-proclaimed savants 2 ½ months ago were certain that the Euro was unkillable – last week believed the Euro was finished. That is the condition I especially love

We Finally Got a Trade this Week! -IFCN Wk 47 – Tue - $1,438.76

After last week's moves, I wouldn't have been at all surprised to get NO trades this week in FirstStrikePlus. When you vary your buy and sell points due to the previous week's volatility and the previous week was the week from Gehenna, the market has to do a serious move to get a trade the next week.We have one.The Usd/Jpy rallied up to hit our buy price at 97.26. I don't have a lot of size on

One Night Stand trades Successful! -IFCN Wk 47 – Mon - $1,430.86

After this morning's open at 00:00 CST, I exited the 4 surviving OneNightStand trades from Friday. The summary follows-OneNightStand 08/24/08 entries:*eur/usd: Short @1.2728, out at 1.2566 for 162 pips profit*gbp/jpy: Short @152.82, out at 147.20 for 562 pips profit*gbp/usd: Short @1.6029, out at 1.5717 for 312 pips profit*usd/jpy: Short @95.33, out at 93.59 for 174 pips profitTotal ONS Profits:

Historically Profitable Week! -IFCN Wk 46 – Fri - $1,428.36

In 25 years of currency trading, I do not remember a week like this one.Even tempering my risk tremendously this last week--- the IFCN Challenge Account has done extremely well with the straight-line moves in most all of the currency pairs favoring the dollar and yen.It turned out to be a great week to be trading FirstStrike Plus. If we were still trading the original FirstStrike model of 50

Outsized Profits Demand Early Exit! -IFCN Wk 46 – Thu – $1,436.16

Due to an extraordinary decision, at 09:31 CST I exited all of my FirstStrikePlus trades at the market. I still have the single XAG position of 100 units @ $9.50, a Non-FirstStrike trade. This week's FirstStrikePlus trades have gained more than 16% on equity with less than 5% total risk.Early this morning, I had a nagging feeling that there was something that I needed to check. And so I did.I

The Dollar, the Strongest of the Weak..., Today! -IFCN Wk 46 – Wed – $1,402.66

The dollar struck two-year highs against a majority of currencies today as concerns about worsening national economies again challenged investors to pare some more “risky” holdings. Investors are finally understanding that European economies could deteriorate as much as the U.S. economy. Funny how they are actually buying into that “weak” US economy when they sell their currencies and buy the

Go With the Flow! -IFCN Wk 46 – Equity: $1,378.14

This is turning out to be an out-sized (profitable) week for the newly instituted FirstStrikePlus.Because the forex market has presently shown a strong tendency to whip back and forth, simple fixed volatility breakout points are subject to being triggered and being stopped out within minutes. Even so, they do work, because if the market doesn't immediately stop out the position initiated, the

Sometimes the Best Position Is.... -IFCN Wk 46 – Mon – $1,283.01

a small position....
Smaller positions with larger stops are best when markets are this fluid. This was a good week to start trading FirstStrikePlus. After this morning's open (Monday) at 00:00 CST, there were no OneNightStand trades to exit. Just the new entries for FirstStrike Plus. If you haven't

End of Week Recap.... -IFCN Wk 45 – Fri – $1,207.10

This is the last week we will be reporting on regular FirstStrike trades. (Fixed 50 pip breakouts above/below the week's open) Next week we will be using FirstStrike Plus, a volatility-responsive FirstStrike model.Here's last week's Friday recap:The data below is as of Friday's close, Oct. 17, 2008:Start of week equity: $1,205.35 OneNightStand Exit(s) on 10/13/08 :10/10/08 Eur/Usd short @

Silver Attention! -IFCN Wk 45 – Thu – Equity $1,246.21

You might find the following daily XAG chart interesting----

I've talked about diagonal triangles before, and there has rarely been a better example than is now visible in XAG (silver). There was a fast drop again today, with a tap to a slight new low, which touched the support-line created by numerous

It Takes Time....IFCN Wk 45 – Wed- Equity $1,182.72

Markets rarely stop and turn on a dime. After getting soundly pummelled for weeks, oftentimes the best solution is respite. That is the current choice of the most of traders.
We lost another trade today. The FirstStrike long Usd/Jpy @ 101.02 got stopped out at 99.82 for a loss of 120 pips. It was a

The Quiet Before the Storm! -IFCN Wk 45 – Tue – Equity $1,268.56

The dollar seems to be stopped by the global recapitalization plan. Surprised?You shouldn't be. It is the classic working out of the “Buy the news, sell the fact!” principle that works regardless of the side you happen to be on. In this case it was the foreign currencies being traded in for dollars as long as panic reigned, and now that the panic is basically over..., they're not continuing

Rebound at Last! IFCN Wk 45 – Mon – Equity $1,326.12

Last week I revisted the double-edged sword issue of volatility and the benefit to using breakout points which are adaptive to current volatility instead of fixed breakout points. I am releasing a version of FirstStrike that better adapts to market conditions. Bring on the big moves! I will be using this adaptive version from now on in the IFCN Challenge account.

Since I was not able to get

Still Alive! IFCN Wk 44 – Fri – Equity $1,205.35

Volatility concerns have encouraged me to make a change that I had planned to implement after the IFCN celebrated its first anniversary. That change is to introduce a version of FirstStrike that automatically adapts its buy/sell prices to the current volatility of the market. The original version has

Historic Week! IFCN Wk 44 – Fri-

Due to extraordinary time demands caused by trading volatility this last week, I did not complete the week's recap and detail intended information about optional volatility modifications to apply to FirstStrike and ONS.Both should be completed Monday, October 13.I'm glad to help others to potentially reap the opportunities presented by the current market action, but I'm also critically aware of

Another Shoe Falls! - IFCN Wk 44 – Thu- Equity: $1,458.23

These are momentous times. It is nice for those of us who are liquid and in the forex market, taking only the trades where we have an edge, instead of being at the mercy of fund managers who were in grade school when the “crash of '87” took place. These sad creatures have only known bull markets and

The TRUTH: We're the 10th Man!! - IFCN Wk 44 – Wed- Equity: $1,366.54

The following was sent to me thanks to George B. --

Bar Stool Economics Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.The fifth

Higher Volatility – Sword of Damocles! IFCN Wk 44 – Tue- Equity: $1,337.95

Sword of Damocles The recent high volatility has made “normal” a thing that changes hourly. In general, volatility is a good thing for traders, like me, who use volatility-breakout methods. But, you need to be aware of the flip side of the volatility equation too. We saw the real cost of volatility in

The Week's Silver Bullet! IFCN Wk 43 – Fri- Equity: $1,265.62

Quite a week. We had great results with two of our FirstStrike trades, a result which is always welcome. We had extremely negative results in our XAG, or silver trades. That doesn't mean that buying silver is bad, but it means that there is a lot of market action that must be withstood until visible

Not a Quiet Day! IFCN Wk 43 – Thu- Equity: $1,312.67

Wow! Not a day for the faint-hearted in the metals! Today, it seemed to be hard to keep a good metal up. Yesterday, silver showed its typical strength and ran up to 12.96 before backing off somewhat by the end of the

Quiet Day! IFCN Wk 43 – Wed- Equity: $1,492.80

Obviously, everyone is waiting to see if a vote is going to succeed on the Bail-out. As volatile as today was, it was relatively calm compared to those previous.

The market's mood is like the family waiting room in a maximum security prison 1 hour before an execution, everyone agonizing to see if the

Silver Plunge Opportunity! IFCN Wk 43 – Tue- Equity: $1,449.47

European banks are running amuck this week as global money markets are locking up. Numerous foreign banks have required capital infusions from governments, including our Federal Reserve. Because money markets have gotten difficult to obtain money from, typical business isn't so typical anymore and credit

Anyone Want to Buy Some Stocks- Or Nancy Pelosi go Home? IFCN Wk 43 – Mon- Equity: $1,556.92

I'm sure there are many people who threw in the towel in the stock market today. Discomfort ran rampant. It didn't help that the resident commie Nancy Pelosi caused bitter feelings just before the vote with the partisan speech she gave on the floor of the House of Representatives. With the strong

Fear Profits! IFCN Wk 42 – Fri- Equity: $1468.07

We had a pretty good week with all of the news and fear setting hold of the forex markets. We are definitely not done with volatility. I've been very impressed with how well the Challenge account has been doing despite the whipsaws we're seeing every day. Silver has held in there like a champ. We gained

Ben Bernanke and the Devil! IFCN Wk 42 – Thu- Equity: $1,422.30

My considered, previous advice made to WallStreet; and now to Washington:If you wear clothes made of flash paper, don'tsmoke.Everyone who has a news show, blog, pulpit..., isgoing on and on about the governmentbuyout/sellout of idiots who mishandled Trillionsplaced in their care. Everyone seems to beoutraged. They all want to know how and why thismess happened.I have little interest in talking

A Time for Rest....

The markets have gone from wildly crazed to..., dull.  Amazing. I've had virtually no trades for a day.  People are digesting the historic buyout/bailout/sellout going on in America.It won't take long, they'll get off the sidelines soon. Nevertheless, this is making a light week for us. I can get some long-awaited research done.I'm still long FirstStrike Gbp/Jpy from @ 195.75 with the

One FirstStrike Trade Left! IFCN Wk 42 – Tue- Equity: $1,431.68

Due to placing the 50% profit trailing stop, which locks in at least half of the maximum profits attained before getting triggered, we have only one trade left in play of our five weekly FirstStrike trades. The long Gbp/Jpy FirstStrike trade that was faltering yesterday when I did the day's recap-- decided

Currency Rally? IFCN Wk 42 – Mon- Equity: $1,455.05

We got filled on all five of the week's FirstStrike trades and so far, only one has been stopped out – the short Usd/Jpy.  Of the four that went profitable, only the Gbp/Jpy was faltering as I write this, and probably will be stopped out soon.The 50% profit trailing stop has been placed on the remaining 3 trades because they all had approximately 300 pips or more in profits at their peaks today

Dollar Finally Gets Chance to Prove how Strong It Really Is! IFCN Wk 41 –Fri– Equity: $1341.49

This was a very good week. Any week you can survive financially intact with extreme divergent motion is a raging success. FirstStrike held its own despite losing on 4 of the 5 entries with a small overall loss because of diminished size on the Gbp/Jpy winning trade.A bright spot was the IFCN silver purchase of 100 units (ounces) of silver at 10.75. The trade was indeed fortunate in timing. It

Having No Trade IS a Trade! IFCN Wk 41 – Thu- Equity: $1,288.56

I find it amazing, and not at all comforting.The ease with which the policy makers throw the “B” word around. Billion dollar buyouts are glibly bandied about on the hour.The Treasury has promised to buy up to $200 billion of Fannie and Freddie stock to keep those institutions alive. The Fed agreed to an $85 billion bridge loan to AIG, this week on Tuesday. The Treasury plans to buy $5 billion of

Silver Trade! IFCN Wk 41 – Wed- Equity: $1,223.88

I take my own advice. I decided to buy some of the $3 silver I wrote about last week for the Challenge account.  And it appears, not an hour too soon.Early this morning I was adding silver to my personal accounts and decided it was a good time to put a little silver in the IFCN account. So far my timing was incredible.Early this morning the IFCN account bought 100 units (100 oz) of XAG/USD @

Best Solution! IFCN Wk 41 – Wed- Equity: $1,162.49

We are now out of the week's FirstStrike trades. I used the 50% trail rule mentioned last week on the short Gbp/Jpy. It seemed appropriate as the maximum profit on the trade was 569 pips at one point. It is just as well because the market volatility today was extreme again and caused fits for most

A Double Edged Sword! IFCN Wk 41 – Mon- Equity: $1,150.40

We got filled on all five of the week's FirstStrike trades and all of them were stopped out except the Gbp/Jpy-- so far. The same volatility that paid us the last couple of weeks is the same that stopped us out this week shortly after entering. I'm glad we're out. That isn't really all that surprising,

Recent Reader Responses!---- Sept. 15, 2008

Here are a small illustrative group of emails I've received since the middle of last week.
Hi Joel,

The last 2 weeks have been pretty interesting for
First Strike, with big swings and substantial
retraces.

I have not been able to resist the temptation to
lock in some profit. After having had so many

Rock - Roll! - IFCN Wk 40 – Fri – Equity: $1,174.29

To say we had a volatile week is the largest understatement possible. We had gigantic profits by Thursday on all of our trades, as anyone knows who took this week's FirstStrike trades. If we had gotten out at the maximum point of profit on each of our trades, we would have been up more than $350 dollars

Great Week! - IFCN Wk 40 – Thu – Equity: $1347.74

I got a lot of interesting responses about the silver post yesterday, all positive; along with some success stories from some of you who are actually taking the trades highlighted here. I'll try to include some in the next few posts as space permits.Here is another Silver chart

The Return of $3.00 Silver, Get it While You Can! --IFCN Wk 40 -Wed- Equity: $1,310.44

(If you have no interest in Silver and the opportunity to purchase it, feel free to skip this post. This post is my own personal opinion and a look at what I personally consider to be the single greatest opportunity available for the small investor to protect their wealth from inflation and make a tremendous amount of money with very little overt risk. No guarantee is expressed or implied.)I

A day of rest! --IFCN Wk 40 -Tue- Equity: $1,275.46.

Not much change in the forex markets after yesterday's stunning moves. Monday's dollar surge resolved into a sideways trading pattern. The Euro and the Sterling have been trounced very hard over the last 5 weeks. A rest for awhile wouldn't be unusual at all.

The week's FirstStrike trades are still in

FirstStrike has Another Great Day! --IFCN Wk 40 -Mon- Equity: $1,325.86

FirstStrike's value is self-evident after a day like today. When the currency markets are very strong or very weak, volatility-breakout methods are incredibly powerful. The higher gap openings on the gbp/usd, eur/usd, and gbp/jpy were gifts to our methods. What few in the forex trading world understand

Forex trading Homeruns! --IFCN Wk 39 -Fri- Equity: $1104.38

Another great week!Straight-line forex moves the past weeks helped the Challenge account make a 161% annualized return since I began trading it in December of 2007!OneNightStand and FirstStrike did great this week. Not bad for a couple of simple but robust trading methods. Of course, some may think that luck plays a large part in abnormal returns, but I have found that it usually is more a

Wow! Dollar Rampage Continues--IFCN Wk 39 -Thu- Equity: $1,106.75.

Wow! After today's action it bears repeating twice. The dollar continued its rampage. It appears that every currency fund manager finally decided there isn't going to be any reprieve in the dollar's strength, so they all decided to act as one in buying the dollar. Watching all the currencies slide in

Euro/Usd Hits 1.4400! --IFCN Wk 39 -Wed- Equity: $1,031.60

Weeks ago when the Euro was still threatening new highs I mentioned that the Euro could easily fall all the way back to 1.4400. I got a few chiding emails at the time, but that's fine. Markets always look great just before they fall, and look awful just before they lift off. The projection of 1.4400 was

Dollar Bulls to Own the Earth? --IFCN Wk 39 -Tue- Equity: $1,003.55

If the Euro and Pound continue to fall at their current rates, it wouldn't take long. As all of us know, currency speculation and exchange is accomplished on margin. Trends like we've seen recently can make a well-placed $10,000 investment in the dollar a $2 million bet with 200:1 leverage. Overdo your

The Stories are Now All About the Pound! --IFCN Wk 39 -Mon- Equity: $1,014.23

Dollar bulls should start to worry a little.
All the news has been buffeting the Sterling and benefiting the Dollar, at least as far as the pundits will venture a comment.
Crowd behavior is a frightening thing. And fickle, obviously. Now the pound is the object of misery. The Euro isn't doing too great

When It Rains It Pours! 103.8% Return! --IFCN Wk 39 -Mon- Equity: $1,019.22.

When OneNightStand trades work, they really work!This morning after midnight, I exited Friday's two ONS trades, the 2 shorts: Gbp/Usd and Gbp/Jpy. Again like last week, OneNightStand performed admirably with very large profits, especially in the Gbp/Jpy. Exiting at midnight again captured most of the profits possible from holding over the weekend.You can see why taking OneNightStand trades are

Lookout Below! Falling Pound – Part 2!--IFCN Wk 38 -Fri- Equity: $978.83

I was quite surprised at the action of the British pound last Friday. The falling to new lows after 2 weeks of waterfall action was an example of extreme weakness. This week's repeat of new lows shows incredibly weak action.
This week, the Gbp/Usd didn't fall as much, but this Friday it acted much like a

Chopped!--IFCN Wk 38 -Thu- Equity: $868.02.

Torture is legal in the forex markets. What a week!I almost would have preferred getting stopped out of all the pairs this week instead of this cliff-hanger mentality the market is in.The short Usd/Jpy trade is still in force, carrying a heavier-than- normal trade size as described in the last two posts.Again, early this morning the market dropped hard, almost as deep as before- but not quite.

Yen Volatility Creates 2nd Opportunity!--IFCN Wk 38 -Wed- Equity: $852.11.

It happened again. I was forced to sell more Usd/Jpy. The Usd/Jpy fell like a Scud missile Tuesday night after my posting the information about the added size placed on the short FirstStrike Usd/Jpy trade. Early this morning, when the market took out the Tuesday's low, I moved the protective stop on

High Volatility Creates Unique Opportunity!--IFCN Wk 38 -Tue- Equity: $847.61.

Today, I decided to risk a little more to make some multiplied return on the yen's strength against the dollar. I will explain why and how.Anyone who is following the FirstStrike trades saw the entries yesterday and the stop-outs of the first two trades. Then today, the astounding final smash of the Gbp/Usd and upward jolt of the Usd/Chf early this morning would force any trader to be impressed

Attempted Reversal Week!--IFCN Wk 38 -Mon- Equity: $803.58.

At least the beginning of the week was a small triumph. This morning at 00:00 CST, I exited Friday's only ONS trade, short the Gbp/Usd. This time OneNightStand performed the way I expect it to, with a generous profit. Exiting at midnight garnered most of the profit possible from holding over the weekend.

Lookout Below! Falling Pound!--IFCN Wk 37 -Fri- Equity: $814.41

I was quite surprised at the action of the British pound on Friday. I wasn't surprised at the pound falling after having a small correction, but plummeting to new lows for the move – putting in 2 year lows – was amazing! And the OneNightStand trade in the pound got triggered! After all the

How High can the Euro go?--IFCN Wk 37 -Thu- Equity: $830.60.

Now that the dollar has gotten significantly stronger-- and quickly over the last few weeks, now the questions being asked are, “how far can currencies like the Euro or British pound rally against the dollar before succombing to weakness again?”We have achieved a bit of softening to the dollar over the last few days. It took a lot of news about oil prices going up, struggles with Russia,

Dollar Stall!--IFCN Wk 37 -Wed- Equity: $839.20.

The dollar stall continues. Any recent news about the world's currencies still is dominated by concerns for the european economies. It is keeping the major dollar gains in place. There may be some simple reasons for

Slide Halted!--IFCN Wk 37 -Tue- Equity: $816.20.

I wasn't far off thinking that we had seen the equity highs for the week. It would take a minor miracle to reach the levels of yesterday. The following is the status of this week's FirstStrike entries: Eur/Usd: Short @1.4695, stopped at 1.4755 for 60 pip loss.Gbp/Jpy: Short @205.32, stop 206.22. Trade in

Resumed!--IFCN Wk 37 -Mon- Equity: $851.37.

A person might think that the currency onslaught might just take a breather after more than 2 weeks of waterfall. Obviously not. This morning after 00:01 I exited the ONS trades from last Friday. This was not one of the times that ONS made us more proud over the weekend. The currencies we held over the

Olympic Strength!--IFCN Wk 36 -Fri- Equity: $841.14.

The dollar's strength continued all week. If the currency's performance this week were in the Olympics, the dollar would have been the uncontested winner in every event.Most in the financial world attributed much of it to the instability of the former Soviet Union made obvious by fresh news of continued fighting. Perhaps.The news is fickle and loves to attribute one trouble to another. It

Price is the Reality!--IFCN Wk 36 -Thu- Equity: $835.63.

The next time you hear the talking heads starting to rapsodize about how and why the market needs to do this or needs to do that, you are hearing what their sponsors want you to believe. The only thing you need to believe is the last tick on the monitor. That tick is what determines what price you get if

If Only!--IFCN Wk 36 -Wed- Equity: $835.63.

If only...! Those words probably have been sincerely spoken more often by traders than anyone in any other occupation. The action this week reinforces to traders how difficult trading can be. Missing great trades can be much more stressful than actually losing money in a bad trade. If we hadn't

Pound Pounded to 21-Month Low!--IFCN Wk 36 -Mon- Equity: $835.63.

The pound slid to its lowest level in almost 21 months against the dollar after a vaunted report indicated that the current credit squeeze brought the real estate market to a "virtual standstill".

Banks have curbed lending as they handle outright losses and writedowns due to fallout from the troublesome

The Dollar's Herculean Strength Continues! --IFCN Wk 36 -Mon- Equity: $835.63.

The forex world is running for cover again this week from the new dollar bulls. Traders who just weeks ago thought the dollar was finished and would never recover are frantically buying the dollar as if it is the last game in town.It isn't. But it might feel that way if you were short any sizable amount.This morning I had the pleasure to exit the ONS trades from last Friday. We picked up a few

Infiniteyield Forex in Action! New All-Time Equity Highs! --IFCN Wk 35 -Fri- Equity: $869.12

Trading is more a mental game than financial.There will be no chest-beating from me after such a great week. Those of you who took the FirstStrike and OneNightStand trades this week are very glad they did, and should feel welcome to do a little chest-beating if you feel like it. You deserve it, because

Despite Adversity, Patience wins out! --IFCN Wk 35 -Thu- Equity: $755.34.

"He that can have patience can have what he will."Benjamin Franklin Most don't remember that Benjamin Franklin was our nation's prime mover helping to establish the paper currency system in America. His early currency exchange provisions enabled our flegling country grow to the behemoth it is today.

Euro Contretemps! --IFCN Wk 35 -Wed- Equity: $717.77.

Two more FirstStrike trades have bit the dust since Monday's
Eur/Usd loss. Surprisingly, the long Usd/Jpy and not so
surprisingly, the short Gbp/Jpy.

The dollar is in the midst of a major rout against all
the other major

Build a Higher Return, They will Come! --IFCN Wk 35 -Mon- Equity: $705.30.

Former Fed chairman, Alan Greenspan drew an intense picture ofthe current financial market challenges in a recent interview.Greenspan stated that it was a "once or twice a century eventdeeply rooted in fears of insolvency of major financialinstitutions". He also felt that it was increasingly likely thatmore bank and financial institution bail outs would take placein future months. He said that he

Dollar Strength Now Obvious- to Some! --IFCN Wk 34 -Fri- Equity: $681.21.

An old rule for trading goes like this: When the majority ofparticipants finally realize a new trend is present, you arelikely at the midpoint of the move. I have seen theramifications of this rule played out countless times, infutures, stocks and definitely the currencies.I'm not absolutely sure that the majority of participantsrealize a new trend starting in favor of the dollar yet, butmost

Nothing is quite as perfect as Great Plans that fail! --IFCN Wk 34 -Thu- Equity: $679.77.

"The marvel of all history is the patience with which men andwomen submit to burdens unnecessarily laid upon them by their governments."--William Edgar BorahThe report this morning caused tons of buying of the Eur/Usdand Gbp/Usd, lots of selling in the Usd/Chf and Usd/Jpy---followed by complete reversals in all of them except the Usd/Jpy which only had an anemic rebound.The dollar truly won this

No One Worries About Your Fire, When They Have One Themselves! --IFCN Wk 34 -Wed- Equity: $671.33.

After dropping more than 200 points in trade the other day, theEur/Usd has basically spent the last 30 hours sitting andwaiting for..., something.The focus in the currency markets has obviously moved from fearsabout the US economy to concerns about the rapidly deterioratingeconomic conditions in the European Community.If another European financial “shoe falls” there will belittle to hold the Eur/

Dollar Recovery Obvious, but Obvious to Whom? --IFCN Wk 34 -Tue- Equity: $666.73.

In trading, perception tends to become reality only after a period oftime where there are no major conflicts to the new perception.Any basic commodity group that is priced in dollars and is showing adecline in prices, is giving the perception that the dollar is gettingstronger, at least in that sector. If it were just one sector, the oldperception of permanent dollar weakness might remain.But,

Mirror week? Dog days of Summer? --IFCN Wk 34 -Mon- Equity: $668.51.

Sorry about the delay in getting the Infiniteyieldforex Challenge update for last week. My weekend was in many ways a reflection of the previous week, volatile and surprising at the same time. I had great moments and frustrating moments, the most frustrating moments involving a very unexpected hard drive failure on an important trading computer. Back to 95% restored but tired of Microsoft

Holding the Course Not for Wimps! --IFCN Wk 33 -Fri- Equity: $675.94.

It takes a great deal of character to take trades over and over again which end up losing.A perfect example was this last week. After a series of 4 weeks with marginal profits or actual losses, we came into last week and immediately were slammed with 5 losses.  I got a small net profit from a pair of uncancelled reverse trades that did little to stem the onslaught.Remembering that this is a

No sure thing! --IFCN Wk 33 -Thu- Equity: $671.45.

The Dollar is maintaining most of its strength aquired in the last week.  But continued action betrays the fact that many of the market participants have different ideas of how strong they feel the dollar will be allowed to maintain. The existing home sales news worked out as I suspected, the dollar remained strong and got stronger vs. the Euro and the Pound.We are still currently long the Usd/

What would you bet that the Fed already knows the numbers? --IFCN Wk 33 -Wed- Equity: $689.56.

Existing home sales for June, to be released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), are widely expected to fall to an annual pace of 4.94 million units following a 2.0% increase to 4.89 million in May.With sparse financial news from the U.S. this week, the currency markets may move on it.Not all forecasts agree of course.Lehman Brothers economists are looking for a 1% advance to

Weatherman..., Trader- 2! --IFCN Wk 33 -Tue- Equity: $675.23.

Hours after the last posting, we prove that we are long or short..., until we aren't. And, we paid personally for our losses.The dollar bulged suddenly on Tuesday because Treasury Secretary Paulson vocally supported the currency and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia president stated that he thought interest rates should be raised. Despite the nervousness implied in the markets recently,

Weatherman..., Trader! --IFCN Wk 33 -Mon- Equity: $701.41.

The Japanese market was on a holiday and other markets were without any reports to encourage strong positions. That is why nothing seemed to happen today.The economic calendar from the US should give more information as the week wears on. Fear of ruinous consequences in the financial sector have eased somewhat following recent better-than-expected earnings reports from the banking sector.

Living Forever! --IFCN Wk 32 -Fri- Equity: $709.06.

I intend to live forever, or die trying. Groucho MarxMarkets like this last week make you think that you might have to live forever to finally catch a big move. Markets are very patient. You must be too. Here's the week's recap:The data below is as of Friday's close, July 11, 2008:Start of week equity: $ 729.65.OneNightStand Exit(s) on 06/14/08 : Exited the long Eur/Usd OneNightStand trade from

Dollar Strengthens More! --IFCN Wk 32 -Thu- Equity: $707.07

The Gbp/Usd is the only FirstStrike trade still working. It definitely looks like one of those weeks where the early profits get drained away. Oil has been falling precipitously, along with grains and other main commodities.  Continuation of these factors will be bearish on the Eur/Usd and bullish for the dollar. Why? Perception of the currency policy makers. We'll see if it works out that way

Dollar Strengthens! --IFCN Wk 32 -Wed- Equity: $729.93

Remarkable.The difference a few days make. A few days ago the “dollar was over” in the minds of the majority in foreign exchange. New high in the Euro, more mortgage banking crisis news, new highs in crude oil. 2 days later, oil dropped 15 dollars and shares of Freddie Mac melt UP! The dollar rose more on Wednesday, moving further from a record low against the Euro, due to a continued drop in

Ben Bernanke, Font of Information! --IFCN Wk 32 -Tue- Equity: $737.12

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke had his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee today. Remarkable things were said.“There is speculation in the oil trade.”"There seems to be adequate oil in the ground.”“There is no "magic bullet" to deal with high commodity prices.”Thanks. I feel much better now. And to think these guys make the big money for sharing this crucial information.Even

Game Theory Alive and Well! --IFCN Wk 32 -Mon- Equity: $717.01

There is some historic news involving game theory.  Game theory is a field which has shown great potential in the markets and definitely impacts trading as a profession.Before we look at it, I'll review our current positions.Early this morning, we exited the long Eur/Usd OneNightStand trade from Friday – in @ 1.5911, out at 1.5898. A loss of 13 pips ($ .95).We entered all five FirstStrike

Dollar Takes a Hit Despite Good News! --IFCN Wk 31 -Fri- Equity: $729.65

Eur/Usd jumped to new weekly highs after the data on exports and imports was released. And, although the information released was actually fairly bullish for the dollar, the dollar dropped heavily against all major Forex currencies because of solvency concerns for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac agencies.Ben Bernanke is testifying to the US Senate next Tuesday, July 15th, for a semi-annual release

This Week was Asleep! --IFCN Wk 31 -Thu- Equity: $709.55

Not a lot of change..  I still periodically think about the cow pictured yesterday.  That's how slow trading has been.We're still long the Eur/Usd with profits. If we still have profits by the end of trading Friday, we'll be happy to take them. It was a pretty anemic week.A couple OneNightStand orders have a realistic chance for getting filled, namely-- the Gbp/Jpy and the Usd/Jpy. We'll see

Learning to Trade Isn't This Hard! --IFCN Wk 31 -Wed- Equity: $712.44

Being a successful trader requires being tough enough to take regular adversity, keep persevering with your efforts so as to come out the other side victorious. So, I'm typically the champion of determined people. No one can succeed at anything difficult or important without persistence. But sometimes you hear about extremes that just make you wonder.Here is a link to a story about a woman whom

Can You Handle A Look in the Abyss? --IFCN Wk 31 -Tue- Equity: $706.20

These following quotes are all very true, and it is terrific that “Wall Street” was so expertly done. I tend to side with Gekko in the film, who would be considered a choir boy compared to the hi-jinx played today by operators in the markets.Gordon Gekko: “The richest one percent of this country owns half our country's wealth, five trillion (dated) dollars. One-third of that comes from hard

Euro is Skittish! --IFCN Wk 31 -Mon- Equity: $714.40

After very interesting closes last week in most of the currency pairs, I figured this week could be challenging.  I hate being right about that.It is very rare for a market to reverse to the downside like the Eur/Usd did and not at least make an attempt at correcting. When the market doesn't correct, you have a great opportunity because most traders count on a correction for their methods.The

Independence Day! -Continued --- IFCN Wk 30 - Sat-

To be among the best and succeed at trading:ONE-----You have to have financial resources to be able to start trading.  That 's the easy part.  You can always get money.  The toughest resources to obtain are those that enable you know for certain there is opportunity in a certain marketplace.  Not everyone can remain committed to trading markets for long periods of time.  If you expect to

Independence Day! --IFCN Wk 30 -Fri- Equity: $730.43.

Independence....Independence is a wonderful word. Having the freedom to do what you wish within very reasonable terms is what all peoples on earth want. (Except for those who think it is ok under certain circumstances to wrap a baby girl in bombware and have her walk into a crowded building.)When most people think of independence they are thinking of having the financial wherewithal that allows

Million Dollar Question!--IFCN Wk 30 -Thu- Equity: $730.43.

In response to my last post, selling the Euro was the right thing to do!I took a big trade today right after the Non Farm Employment report came out. I took one of my low risk DIBS trades, short the Eur/Usd at 1.5863. The market cratered. Anyone selling within a minute of when I did-- had instant profits after getting filled. It was a meltdown. The entire world must have been long the Euro

The Phone Rang, it's my Wife! Sell the Euro!--IFCN Wk 30 -Tue- Equity: $730.43.

I finally got stopped out of the three remaining FirstStrike entries-- the Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, and Usd/Chf, for a 60 pip loss each. A total of 5 FirstStrike trades and 5 losses.  It has happened before and will happen again, many times....These are the FirstStrike entries and exits for the week-----Eur/Usd: short @ 1.5737, stopped out at 1.5797 for a 60 pip loss.Gbp/Jpy: short @ 210.59, stopped

Ahead One step, then back Two! --IFCN Wk 30 -Mon- Equity: $752.13

We got some profits this morning, then promptly had some losses. Trading as usual.You might want to scroll down and check out some of the comments on previous posts.Here was one from June 28th--Hi Joel. Thanks for posting this blog, very informative.I was wondering, if you were to get stopped out of all your First Strike and ONS trades (assuming you had all five currencies in trade on the same

Dollar Slammed this Week! OneNightStand profits!--IFCN Wk 29 -Fri- Equity: $767.88.

After a volatile beginning, this week the major currencies continued the directions set last week, with the dollar losing against all of them. The Fed holding the same interest rate and some in the Eurozone increasing theirs-- was a knee-jerk recipe for dollar weakness. Less interest differential for the dollar-- the dollar loses some supporters.As many are beginning to realize, the carry-trade

How Long until You earn a Million?--IFCN Wk 29 -Thu- Equity: $759.90.

I ran across this interesting list on the net earlier today.Here are 30 jobs with earnings anywhere from below minimum wage to six-figure salaries and how long it would take to earn $1 million in terms of years. Architects, except landscape and naval: $64,150 ---16 yearsAutomotive service technicians and mechanics: $33,780 ---30 yearsBartenders: $16,350 ---61 yearsBookkeeping, accounting and

Been Bitten? --IFCN Wk 29 -Wed- Equity: $763.20.

-----A young girl was trudging along a mountain path, trying to reach her grandmother's house. It was bitter cold, and the wind cut like a knife. When she was within sight of her destination, she heard a rustle at her feet. Looking down, she saw a snake. Before she could move, the snake spoke to her. He said, "I am about to die. It is too cold for me up here, and I am freezing. There is no food

People Who Think about Art as an Investment are Pathetic! --IFCN Wk 29 -Tue- Equity: $760.55.

The famous quote above is from Walter Hubert Annenberg (1908 – 2002), an American billionaire. He was a previous owner and publisher of the Inquirer, the creator of Seventeen magazine and TV Guide; a philanthropist, and a diplomat.Estimates are that Annenberg donated more than (US) $2 Billion in his final years. Believing education was the greatest investment he spent much on schools,

Peter, Paul and Mary..., Dictate the Strength of the Euro! --IFCN Wk 29 -Mon- Equity: $799.33.

Inflation is increasing noticably in the Eurozone and the US. More noticably in the Eurozone of late because of the previous extreme emphasis on the America's economic situations which are loudly and rancorously trumpeted.Some have correctly noted that both the Eurozone and the US have similar economic growth figures so far. Yes, but those figures are very deceptive as is what economic growth

2 + 2 = 4 ! --IFCN Wk 28 -Fri- Equity: $789.67.

Not much can be said about this week except I'm glad it is past.A lot of other markets held my attention due to resources involved. Greater risk = greater attention. The grains are very active and dangerous, but risk managers is what traders are. Where the risk is, the profits are. Making sure that you can handle the specific risk you are willing to take is the ultimate question.If you are in a

Chicken Little Solution!--IFCN Wk 28 -Friday- Equity: $782.50.

This has really been a “nothing” week, which had a lot of action. We saw crude oil hit $139.89/barrel on Monday morning and then promptly fall off $5.28/barrel the rest of the day. It has been going lower since.Corn prices also hit an all time high of $7.60/bushel Monday and haven't gone any higher since. Not for a lack of trying. With all the news in the world saying that there will be no corn

Time for a Nap!--IFCN Wk 28 -Thu- Equity: $786.15.

This trading week has been relatively uneventful except for general uncertainty about how inflation should be dealt with in the representative currencies.The European Central Bank has been making strong comments about how they are particularly concerned about inflation and show willingness to increase their interest rates. That should make some people less willing to be short the euro.We have a

Battle of Words Shakes Markets!--IFCN Wk 28 -Tue- Equity: $781.34.

Much talk about inflation and the ramifications of high crude prices caused a lot of turmoil for our trades. Three of them got stopped out. I wasn't surprised.  I was more surprised when we had the temporary 4% gain mid-Monday with the initial trades. The week is probably going to continue to chop as the large players get settled as to where they intend to place their strongest positions.The

Now the Euro Gets Stronger!--IFCN Wk 28 -Mon- Equity: $810.02

I'm sure you have noticed that the news rotates back and forth every few days as to which currency is taking a dramatic gain over the others.When this happens this often, it is usually a distribution area. These are typically very difficult areas to trade. You need a system that trades on price, and you need to execute trades precisely with little fear of the consequences of your trades. And

Successful Week buying the Dollar!--IFCN Wk 27 -Fri- Equity: $785.05

Four OneNightStand trades (listed below) were executed on Friday. None were stopped out on Friday, so they all have been held over for exit early Monday morning right after midnight. Three FirstStrike trades were exited Friday just before 15:00 CST.Here's this week's recap:The data below is as of Friday's close, June 13, 2008:Start of week equity: $709.31OneNightStand Exit(s) on 06/09/08:

Euro Slump!-- IFCN Wk 27 -Fri- Equity: $782.51

We currently have 7 positions.  Its been a while since we had on this much size.  This situation is always a double-edged sword.We got filled on the following OneNightStand orders early this morning:eur/usd: short @ 1.5365, stop 1.5465.gbp/jpy: long @ 210.76, stop 209.76.gbp/usd: short @ 1.9433, stop 1.9533.usd/jpy: long @ 108.10, stop 107.10. If a OneNightStand order is not stopped out during

Turn The Machines Back On!-- IFCN Wk 27 -Tue- Equity: $781.74

When I see the action of the Euro this week I am reminded of that famous phrase spoken at the end of the 1983 movie, “Trading Places” with Don Ameche, Dan Aykroyd and Eddie Murphy. The Duke brothers had made a ruinous position bet on a market they were absolutely sure of – and they were absolutely wrong. The market went where it had to go--- against their huge, completely wrong positions."

The Dollar Isn't As Weak as THEY Thought!-- IFCN Wk 27 -Tue- Equity: $777.35

After the huge run-ups in all major currencies-not-the-dollar near the end of last week, we are having the exact opposite reaction this week. Maybe the strong currencies of Europe aren't that strong after all.Contra Felicem vix deus vires habet. (against a lucky man a god scarcely has power.)We've had some big profits in Forex this week. Maybe a little better than we normally would, but I can

Please Be Careful, Obama!-- IFCN Wk 27 -Mon- Equity: $729.55

I have serious concerns for Senator Obama's safety. Check musings on the web, and you'll see I'm not alone.That said, he is not my candidate. I have no candidate, unless someone can dig up and revive either Thomas Jefferson or Teddy Roosevelt. And, if resurrected, I doubt either of them would be willing to be president of the country that is America today.I have no interest in editorializing a

Weak Dollar Fears Panic Friday's Trading!-- IFCN Wk 26 -Fri- Equity: $709.31

This was quite an interesting week, especially after seeing the fireworks on Friday after the US non-farm employment report. It definitely looked like we were going to get stopped out on all of our trades a number of times. After the market settled down near the close, we attained a measure of profit in the Gpy/Jpy, which was far off the maximum profits it held at one point in the week, and

Trades Oscillate before Friday's Big News!-- IFCN Wk 26 -Thu- Equity: $719.57

The trade on Thursday was obviously defensive preparing for Friday's Unemployment report.  This news is always watched every month to give a clue about overall economy strength, but this seems to be a particularly key news release because of the edgy feelings other currencies have been experiencing.Today I sent out an example Sure-Breakout trade in the Eur/Usd to those on the subscriber list. It

Can You Handle the Swings?-- IFCN Wk 26 -Wed- Equity: $$754.15.

We've had two more of the week's FirstStrike trades bite the dust. The short Usd/Chf and Usd/Jpy got stopped out. I wasn't surprised.When they got stopped out, the drawdown intraday was substantial. All of the trades looked like grim “death at the door”. If you panicked and exited then right then, which would be the most natural human reaction there is; you would be down substantially for the

Trading is Mental!-- IFCN Wk 26 -Wed- Equity: $757.20

First, note the new box on the upper right hand of the page about- "I am going to be this rich in the next 10 years." I found the site on a search about utility theory. It is a must-try site for burgeoning traders. Answer just 15 questions and find out what kinds of choices can dictate huge changes in your future rewards. The result you see on the button is what I received my first try--

A full Half Year of Forex Trading Success!-- IFCN Wk 26 -Mon- Equity: $755.67

We are halfway into the first year of the challenge. We exceeded the 50% target for the year many weeks ago. Then had an inevitable drawdown and now we are beginning to climb back up in equity. There were no official OneNightStand trades taken on Friday, so there were no exits on Monday morning. I stated “official” ONS trades because after official Friday trading hours - when there is

Currencies Have Feet of Clay!-- IFCN Wk 25 -Fri- Equity: $730.23

Traders have long lived on the profits from market moves that are predicated by simple concepts, the simplest of which follow below:The cure for a low price is a low price. The cure for a high price is a high price.It may take a second or two to get the concept of this but it is really very simple. Have a lot of something, like – wheat, like we did in the 1990's because everyone and their uncle

Up! Forex Challenge Account is UP 7.5% This Week on Strong Dollar! -- IFCN Wk 25 -Thu- Equity: $750.12

Nine weeks ago we were hitting new equity highs for the IFC account. It looked for a while like the upside move of the Eur/Usd would never end. But of course, we knew it would have to. And we profited until it quit.That was then – this is now! After a couple of months of chop and drawdowns, we are beginning to see some life in the account again.We are sitting on larger gains due to huge moves

Want a Carry Trade? Buy the Dollar! IFCN Wk 25 -Wed- Equity: $712.05

Current “carry trade” examples:Buying the Usd/Chf: Interest rate differential is 2.75%= $ 6.31/day/100,000 unit position.Buying the Usd/Jpy: Interest rate differential is 4.75% = $11.04/day/100,000 unit position.This means, if you can hold a 100,000 unit position of Usd/Jpy for a WHOLE YEAR using $4,000.00 margin (with some firms you could hold that position with $2K or some even $1K) you

Post-Holiday Lurch Fails!- IFCN Wk 25 -Tue- Equity: $693.25

I hope that everyone had a restful Memorial Day holiday. We had some company over the holiday weekend, and much discussion and adroit partaking of flavorful food with complementary beverages ensued. In addition, I wish to welcome the 33 new subscribers who found this blog over the extended weekend. Happy to have you aboard. A couple of you have Yahoo addresses that won't allow emails to them.

Maybe We Can Burn The Euro! -IFCN Wk 24 -Fri- Equity: $697.89

The dollar fell against 13 of the 16 most active currencies this week while oil hit a record $135.09 a barrel Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. still imports more oil than any other country. Oil prices closed for the holiday weekend $3.00 a barrel below yesterday's highs.Is oil going to keep streaming higher?Maybe, but it is wise to remember this trading fact. The best bull

No trade..., is a trade! IFCN Wk 24 -Thu- Equity: $697.89

We've had some strong rallys in the Gbp/Usd and Eur/Usd this week, of course, right after we got stopped out early in the week. That happens all the time when you are following a method that doesn't try to trade every swing. You miss some good trades, and just as many or even more bad trades. We are not here to get all of the trades, just our trades.The OneNightStand orders are going out

Can You Really Handle the Way the Market will Pay You Off? IFCN Wk 24 -Wed- Equity: $697.89

With the markets as choppy as they've been currently, I thought I would cover some applicable material.Tons of people think that the ideal life is to sit on a beach, mountaintop, hotel room in Venice, or wherever and trade the markets. They believe that it's possible to make money almost every day and be able to consider the forex market a virtual ATM. That's obvious by the ads Google chooses

How Real Money is Made! IFCN Wk 24 -Tue- Equity: $697.89

Here is a great story of how money is made:A young man asked an old rich man how he made his money.The old guy fingered his worsted wool vest and said, "Well, son, it was 1932. The depth of the Great Depression. I was down to my last nickel."I invested that nickel in an apple. I spent the entire day polishing the apple and, at the end of the day, I sold the apple for ten cents."The next morning,

Zoned! IFCN Wk 24 -Mon- Equity: $701.18

It seems like we've been locked in this narrow equity zone forever. Not that I mind it that much, but it does get boring. It does beat getting hammered (equity-wise, not sobriety-challenged) week after week.The dollar has been consolidating just below its recent highs, and may soon get a move on again. As there were no OneNightStand trades taken on Friday, there were no exits this morning.There

Hope Kills!-- IFCN Wk 23 -Fri- Equity: $734.36

There is no hope.  There is only price.The pound dropped to a three-month low against the dollar this week as the negativity about the UK economy deepened. I think people lack perspective! 65 years ago, the populace would have been happy to sell their souls for the economy they have now.Informational reports in the UK this week showed that retail sales fell in April, and other indicators of

Choppy! IFCN Wk 23 -Thu- Equity: $735.30

It has been a choppy week for forex participants.  I got a number of calls today about how amazing it was that every trade the callers had taken this week seemed to be immediately going into losses.  It can seem like that when markets get rangebound.  It usually means a bigger set of trades is in the offing.Indeed, I've been happy that I've only taken a few trades this week.  I've seen very

Dollar gains popularity! IFCN Wk 23 -Wed- Equity: $741.17

It isn't just the pairs we trade!Here are some of the headliners for forex news lines today:Australian Dollar Declines To 13-day Lows against the DollarMalaysian Ringgit Slumps To New Multi-month Low against the Dollar Indonesian Rupiah Plunges To Fresh Multi-month Low against the Dollar Hong Kong Dollar Falls To New Multi-month Low against the Dollar Aussie sets new multi-day lows against

Just One Left.... IFCN Wk 23 -Tue- Equity: $738.10

We experienced 3 more FirstStrike losses today.We are back to a similar situation as we were last week, holding only one remaining FirstStrike trade.  This time we remain long the Gbp/Jpy pair- @ 202.11 with protective stoploss at 201.21.Maybe the pair will bring us outsized profits like it did last week.Current equity:  $738.10Joel Rensinkwww.infiniteyield.comPS: To receive the FREE! trading

pssst!! Now Sell the Dollar! IFCN Wk 23 -Mon- Equity: $748.05

Nothing has changed except the flavor of fear in the forex market. The currency markets of late have offered every possible variety of movement. Strong up movements, strong down movements, and then strong upmoves again. Pick a pair, any pair.That is why we simply follow our signals. If there is a sustained move, by entering our trades we will be in position to catch it. Only those who execute

pssst!! Buy the Dollar!-- IFCN Wk 22 -Fri- Equity: $741.65

As most of the current readers of this site are aware, I have been critical of the excessive value of the Euro currency. It looks like others have begun adopting the same view.Jim Rogers, a long-time bear on the U.S. dollar (USD) believes the currency is finally oversold. Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said in a Bloomberg article, “Too many investors are bearish on the U.S. dollar and

Pound is Too Heavy! - IFCN Wk 22 -Thu- Equity: $731.23

The British pound is still being pressured due to carry trades being unwound. The perception that the English economy is not substantially better than other industrialized countries has become realized in recent unassailable reports.Our FirstStrike trade shorting the Gbp/Jpy at the beginning of the week @ 207.09, w/protective stop at 207.99 – is still alive and well, so far holding over 450 pips

You profit from GBP/JPY Carry-Trade Collapse! IFCN Wk 22 -Wed- Equity: $721.02

The attention in forex trading is decidedly moving away from US economic issues to the economic troubles in the European and Britain zones. The forex trading forecast for the US dollar is looking better, and it appears that the easy money slam dunk of shorting the US dollar is drawing to a close. Even the Japanese Yen is stronger than European currencies.  That says a lot all by itself.What's

Tuesday's Can Be Blue Too! IFCN Wk 22 -Tue- Equity: $701.90

The paucity of interesting news tends to lull major market participants into inactive postures. That explains the choppy behavior the past 2 days. It makes me happy that this week I'm trading very little. I only like to be involved heavily when the markets are very strong or very weak. Late today the dollar started back to a stronger stance against the Swiss Franc, the Yen and the Euro.It took

Monday Blues! IFCN Wk 22 -Mon- Equity: $700.60

Again it is Monday, and again the markets are far from definitive as to what their weekly course will be.OneNightStand trades exited this morning at 00:01 CST-Usd/Chf: long on Friday @ 1.0510, exited at 1.0541 for a total trade profit of 31 pips Usd/Jpy: long on Friday @ 104.91, exited at 1.5.21 for a total trade profit of 30 pips Nice to see some profits in the ONS group.Finally all 5 of the

Dollar Rampages Euro, Swiss and Yen on Derby week!-- IFCN Wk 21 -Fri- Equity: $711.60

Big Brown wins the Kentucky Derby! In racing, like trading, I keep looking out for that new Secretariat. Today's was a great race with a dominant horse, but it was too bad that Eight Belles, the filly who came in second had to be destroyed minutes after the finish because it came up ruined.I don't think Big Brown is a Secretariat, but at least he beat everyone today out of a huge field with fast

The Dollar Roars! - IFCN Wk 21 -Thu- Equity: $710.05

Lot of great action today!The European currencies reaction to the quarter-point cut in the US Fed funds rate on Wednesday was shortlived! Today the Eur/Usd and Usd/Chf returned to their trending action of yielding to the dollar.Further comments after the rate cut appeared to indicate that the Fed is likely to maintain rates at the new level for the near term.The dollar jumped to its highest

Death by Newstrade! - IFCN Wk 21 -Wed- Equity: $710.05

The Fed interest rate change took place today as expected. Or not as completely expected as some thought.The Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd in particular oscillated substantially before finally deciding the greatest number of stops to hit were to the upside. So up they went. Anyone who tried to newstrade had difficulties keeping a position without having a large stop in place. The Usd/Chf and Usd/Jpy

Rate change blues? - IFCN Wk 21 -Tue- Equity: $714.10

A number of big reports will be out tomorrow. Not the least of which will be the FOMC Statement report @ 14:15 CST.  It is common for the day preceding the "big news" to have a lot of action, and today was a good example.  The pound lost a lot of ground to the dollar.  We'll see if tomorrow how well the market has anticipated the Fed's actions. At last we entered our last two FirstStrike trades

The Dollar making a slow turn? - IFCN Wk 21 -Mon- Equity: $722.36

There was no real news out today, except that the dollar continues to trade near an 8 week high versus the yen. That means that someone is beginning to buy the dollar. And the Euro still isn't having the best time right now. Euro weakness last week wasn't met with a snapback, just a wimper today.I always find it useful when a big bank tells you how to trade--- I found the following on

Dollar gets Stronger, Market Turmoil still causes losses!-- IFCN Wk 20 -Fri- Equity: $743.53

The dollar gained quite a bit this week as expected. Too bad our initial gains evaporated.NOTE: I am getting a lot of bouncing emails from Yahoo addresses, and those similar to them. If you are not getting emails from:..., that is why. Here is the recap of our trading week--The data below is as of Friday's close, April 25, 2008: We had one OneNightStand trade executed on Friday. We went long

Owning the Euro is decidedly less fun now! - IFCN Wk 20 -Fri- Equity: $773.80

Since yesterday, the Euro has continued to drop determinedly versus the dollar.Also, there are rumblings that the Fed may not lower interest rates any further.  That doesn't help the Euro either, with the strong possibility that the European community may have to lower rates and lose value to the greenback.A note about OneNightStand orders for this week and the future, until further notice:*****

Euro is being Abandoned! - IFCN Wk 20 -Thu- Equity: $780.67

The Euro is getting sold.  The Euro took out the last two weeks trading action versus the dollar after a German IFO survey showed corporations' sentiment wasn't as positive as expected in April.It made many of the holders of Euros less certain it would maintain its strength against all comers.The weakening IFO data could open the possibility for cuts in the European interest rates, something

A Real Standoff! IFCN Wk 20 -Wed- Equity: $792.16

We are still in all of our FirstStrike trades from Monday.What is amazing is this,  our total equity hasn't changed much but the positions have evened out a bit to their profitability.  The Gbp/Usd and Gbp/Jpy have given up some of their profits which seem to have moved into the Eur/Usd, Usd/Chf and Usd/Jpy trades.It has turned into an interesting week, seeing which pairs might actually become

It Isn't Luck! IFCN Wk 20 -Mon- Equity: $801.06

We just take the trades....FirstStrike entered all 5 of the markets we placed our orders. The first ones to hit were the short trades of GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. They executed their orders, dropped like a rock and stopped for nothing. Just the way I like to see a trade, because they can be the absolute best ones. Most people are uncomfortable with a “straightline” trade because it gives virtually

-- IFCN Wk 19 -Fri- Equity: $747.51

All the news released this week tends to indicate that there is a lot of demand for dollar denominated products manufactured in America and its possessions. The export boom that US manufacturers are enjoying is continuing at a greater pace for companies like Caterpillar Inc., Terex Corp, and the U.S. unit of Siemens Corp. Don't be surprised if the dollar gains a little strength in the near

The Problem of Curve-Fitting -IFCN Wk 19 -Fri- Equity: $753.25

I have received a number of emails from readers over the past few months concerning whether one could improve the results of systems like FirstStrike or One Night Stand by optimizing.If one tests all possible combinations of variables in a trading system you can always find a combination of parameters that, if used in the past, would provide a better return than the parameters currently being

Fed doesn't like the condition of our economy, Buy Euros! IFCN Wk 19 -Wed- Equity: $757.69

Apparently the U.S. economy is not too good right now, according to the Fed's most recent report on conditions, with conditions getting worse across the the nation. Consumer spending is down, job numbers are declining and manufacturing is holding its own, according to the Fed's Beige Book, the compilation of gossip from its 12 regional banks. Three said there was no apparent change. Nine of the

Euro is trying hard to show a strong face, but..., -- IFCN Wk 19 -Tue- Equity: $741.12

FirstStrike entered all 5 of the markets we follow. One by one all the trades have gotten stopped out except the Eur/Usd. Very like last week. I wouldn't give great odds on the Eur/Usd trade surviving this week. Then again, I wasn't that confident about last week's Euro trade either.It should be very difficult for the Euro to remain strong when the other major pairs are losing out to the

Choppy Week! -- IFCN Wk 18 -Fri- Equity: $759.67

There really wasn't much to talk about this week. No important news or reactions to anything worldwide. So we really got lots of chop.Even if I wasn't trading this week, I would have been able to tell what the market was like from the types of calls I got from other traders.  People were not as focused as usual.  Small, insignificant details were drawing away their attention.  And they were all

One FirstStrike Trade Soldiers On! -- IFCN Wk 18 -Thu- Equity: $761.20

 The Eur/Usd bought @ 1.5717 is still profitable.  And there is a possibility of a OneNightStand trade in the Eur/Usd today.Current equity is $761.20.  Not a great week, but we take the trades we have.The OneNightStand orders went out and are as follows:eur/usd:  BUY 1.5914, stop 1.5859. gbp/jpy: SELL 197.01, stop 197.56. gbp/usd: SELL 1.9651, stop 1.9706. usd/chf: SELL .9871, stop .9926.

One Lone FirstStrike Trade Soldiers On! -- IFCN Wk 18 -Wed- Equity: $768.60

One FirstStrike trade is still going. The Eur/Usd bought @ 1.5717 with a stoploss @ 1.5657 is profitable and near all-time historic highs.I am actually surprised that we had the one holdout. The other pairs have been exceptionally choppy this week, until today. If you traded frequently this week it is likely you lost more than average.When the markets are trying to digest new market conditions

The US dollar Isn't Alone! -- IFCN Wk 18 -Tue- Equity: $749.10

The dollar is not the only currency under pressure anymore.The Gbp/Usd is getting hammered after housing data in the UK indicates that their economy is not as rock solid as they've been trumpeting.The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates Thursday, which is a possible “buy the fact” event--- and the market is starting to price in the possibility of even more severe interest rate cuts

The Quick and the Dead! -- IFCN Wk 18 -Mon- Equity: $755.34

It is great that the weather is generally improving around the US. Spring is getting here, but in Minnesota today, it was a nasty cold one! The warmth from late last week disappeared, and showed us we have to be patient for the good weather.The weather is just like the markets we've been trading. Nothing great comes easy!We got 4 quick FirstStrike entries today and are still alive in 1 of them

Non-Farm Payroll Surprise? Not really.... -- IFCN Wk 17 -Fri- Equity: $783.77

The big news today was the first-Friday-of-the-month Non Farm payroll report. According to today's Labor Department report, the US economy lost 80,000 non-farm payroll jobs in March. Some forecasters had predicted an even larger loss.February and March payrolls were revised downward by 67,000 jobs for a total cumulative loss of 152,000 jobs.Friday's report is the first time since June of 2003

Attention: Readers, and Nancy Pelosi --CORRECTION--

Attention: Readers, and Nancy PelosiThe post of April 2, 2008 about Pelosi and specific statements attributed to her about wanting to tax 401K's – and just about anything else..., were in error. Huge error.I normally do not check websites like http://www.snopes.com before I post a newsletter with information I get from a "trusted" source. That will change now.I got an email about Nancy

Nancy Peloski to the Rescue!!! --IFCN Wk 17 -Tue- Equity: $783.77

Still out of the market, waiting for Friday.The dollar has gotten stronger vs. the Japanese Yen.After a correction today in the Eur/Usd, the dollar seems to be gaining again here too.Since this Friday is the Non-Farm Payroll event, it is likely to have large potential because of the major flows of capital from bonds to stocks and from one currency's assets to another's.Thursday will likely be a

Eur/Usd has a double top! More Downside likely -- IFCN Wk 17 -Mon- Equity: $783.77

I got stopped out of this week's final two FirstStrike pairs, the short Gbp/Jpy and the short Usd/Chf. That makes all five FirstStrike trades concluded for the week with a total of 300 pips loss.Current equity is $783.77. I will wait patiently for some possible OneNightStand trades this weekend.The Euro/Usd does appear to have double-topped at the $1.59 area as I thought it should. Financially

Eur/Usd Tries to Go Higher-- Just Couldn't do it! -- IFCN Wk 17 -Mon- Equity: $802.43

After a big couple of weeks, it isn't surprising that we should have some downside action. And we are seeing it this week.The Eur/Usd tried again to go to new highs, something it attempted at the end of last week and wasn't able to accomplish either. If a market can't go up..., there is really only one other direction for it to travel.We got 5 quick FirstStrike entries early this morning and

How Big of a Drawdown Can YOU Take?

What you've been watching in the performance of this account is the way real trader's accounts perform in extraordinary market conditions. Fortunately, OneNightStand and FirstStrike are the types of systems which benefit from volatile moves. When they don't get stopped out first, they offer one of the best overall risk/reward ratios possible in trading. But they are frustrating for the average

Up 25% This Week! Forex Challenge Account is UP again! -- IFCN Wk 16 -Fri- Equity: $827.35

We are sitting on large gains due to huge moves this week in the Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd. It helped that the winning position sizes were larger than normal. Even if they weren't, we would've had a larger percent gain than last week and still have equity in the $750 – 760 range. Then we would only be up 50% for the Forex Challenge account instead of the current 65%. Imagine what the results could

65% gain in 106 days!!! From Free Systems! -- IFCN Wk 16 -Wed- Equity: $827.35.

A few minutes ago I exited my remaining FirstStrike trades- the long Eur/Usd and the long Gbp/Usd at the market. I have time conflicts for the next few days, and definitely for Friday afternoon-- when I would normally exit, so I decided to exit now. I could raise my protective stops to limit loss potentials, but prefer to simply exit and wait for the next trades when I can be at the stick like

We're LONG!!! New Milestone Hit! Euro and Pound Gain Strongly against the Dollar! -- IFCN Wk 16 -Tue- Equity: $764.55.

At the top of this blog I've stated the following: “In this Forex blog I will take a REAL trading account of relatively insignificant size: $500.00-- and trade it so as to make it grow at a rate of more than 50% annually. The goal is $150K..., in significantly less than 10 years. Watch this blog for the volatility in return that is inevitable when a professional trading account is traded for

Euro and Pound Gain moderately Against the Dollar!!! -- IFCN Wk 16 -Mon- Equity: $684.63.

It was nice to have a long weekend. As stated last week, I exited all remaining FirstStrike trades @ 15:00 CST on Thursday. Also, no OneNightStand orders were entered Friday.There was some minimal trading that took place on Friday, but the spreads and lack of opportunity should have kept all but the gambler out of the marketplace. 90% of the market players (read: the “big money”) celebrate

Forex Challenge: New Equity Highs Again- Up 12% for the Week!!! -Week's Recap -- IFCN Wk 15 -Thu- Equity: $661.17

A pretty decent trading week. Despite high volatility and getting stopped out of most of our trades, it turned out to be a good week. This is the way good trading really works. Taking money from Peter to pay Paul most weeks. Then you have a great week when you take money from everyone else.I would be thrilled with a week like this every week. Silver and gold dropped again. Silver has dropped

Holiday Trading Considerations! - IFCN Week 15 - Wed-

I'm glad I got the following email about the coming holiday weekend! It helped remind me to mention that there will be no trading on Friday, which definitely affects the way we exit and enter our systems this week.Dear Joel, Could you please make a note in your blog on how you plan to handle orders for ONS and FS for the upcoming weekend? .... Thanks for blogging, and have a very Happy Easter,T

Silver and Gold and Commodity Rout! -IFCN Wk 15 -Wed- Equity: $631.55

All in all, it was a good day for me.  And the Forex Challenge account.Remaining FirstStrike Trades:eur/usd: Sold @ 1.5792, stop 1.5852. Trade in progress---usd/chf: Bought @ .9811, stop .9751. Trade in progress---After fooling around for the early part of the morning, the Eur/Usd started back down and the Usd/Chf started back up-- which is good for FirstStrike.With the gold (XAU) and silver (

" ..., Sell The Fact!" --IFCN Wk 15 -Wed- Equity: $620.06

Buy the news- sell the fact.  The highly anticipated reduction in interest rates by the Fed indeed took place today at 1:15 PM CST.A great price drop ensued in the Euro and gain in the dollar because there was no reason for additional investments in the other currencies temporarily.  Everyone had previously gotten in other currencies that wished to, so selling was the only new option.Large drop

Survival: Trading's First Rule-- IFCN Wk 15 -Mon- Equity: $623.73

Proof that survival is trading's first rule: Bear Stearns.Monday's trades:The OneNightStand system works great! Too bad my account didn't jump like it could have. As you'll see in a bit, trading involves trade-offs. I exited the short Usd/Chf (@1.0045) last surviving OneNightStand trade from Friday @ 97.41 on Monday morning 00:01 CST, for a total profit of 304 pips. The account then stood at

$100 a Second---- IFCN Wk 15 -Mon- Equity: $623.66

The collapse of Bear Stearns sent the forex markets spinning on Friday, and carried on through today. Market players are very undecided which way to go - except sell anything they don't feel good about.This morning, the dollar fell to a record low against the euro and a 12-year low vs. the yen. Gold went to an all new high, again. Everyone who cares has heard about the “rescue” of Bear Stearns

End of Week Recap -- IFCN Wk 14 -Fri- Equity: $587.34

 The data below is as of Friday's close, March 14, 2008: This week's Alpha account trading recap:Start of week equity: $ 633.02Completed FirstStrike trades:Eur/Usd: Short stopped out for 60 pip lossGbp/Jpy: Short stopped out for 60 pip loss Gbp/Usd: Short stopped out for 60 pip lossUsd/Chf: Short stopped out for 60 pip lossUsd/Jpy: Short stopped out for 60 pip lossTotal of 300 pips in losses

Dollar Sags! Good trading! - IFCN Wk 14 -Thu- Equity: $601.75

This has been a great week for most forex traders. If the Forex Challenge account hadn't gotten stopped out so early on the initial whipsaws of the week, there would have been great profits when the market straightened out and got going again.My private accounts did great, up almost 9% in the past day and a half.  I even used Dean Saunder's M5 Trading Method (Blade Strategies) to take 53 pips

Trading is Pains-Taking! -- IFCN Wk 14 -Wed- Equity: $601.75

Since there are no trades in the Forex Challenge account currently, I thought I would write a few things about discipline as a trader. I have my reasons. I want to spare some of you some pain.This subject isn't sexy, but it is pretty interesting when you realize that the reason you can make money as a trader today is because so few have the right discipline.The way most individuals end up as

Emails about Oanda and Daylight Savings time issues--

I got an email from a IFCN subscriber about Oanda and its current inability to to handle OCO orders. Hi Joel,I was thinking that maybe you could suggest to your members that they could write directly to Oanda requesting the addition of OCO orders to Oanda's platform.We might be able to start enough of a 'ground swell' to prod Oanda into implementing oco's. Oanda can be reached at: frontdesk@

5 Quick Losses -- IFCN Wk 14 -Tue- Equity: $601.75

Sorry I didn't get the chance to post yesterday.My primary trading got fast and heavy, which was a mix of good and bad. Mostly good, though. Good trading always comes down to execution. Risking the right amount of capital on the right trades is part of the execution.-----Friday's holdover OneNightStand trade- Gbp/Usd: Long @ 2.0141 was exited at 2.0194 for a 53 pip profit. That brought equity

End of Week Recap -- IFCN Wk 13 -Fri- Equity: $633.02

Quite a week. I was amazed that I ended up profitable even though I had 5 losses in FirstStrike. The OneNightStand exits on Monday helped a lot. Position sizes were up enough that the profits were sizable. They made the extra equity that FirstStrike used up immediately.Also, the SureBreakout trade added a well appreciated 80 extra pips!Of the four OneNightStand trades taken Friday morning, 3

Too Much good News for the EURO? We'll see tomorrow! -IFCN Wk 13 -Thu- Equity: $637.77

Thank you, readers....I've had 5 people email me about their results trading FirstStrike and OneNight Stand. All of them started on different weeks, but of course, they all had great results last week. I've printed part of one response below:Hi Joel,I'm not writing this because I have any pressing questions or intelligent remarks to make but rather to let you know I'm still here. I'm one of

Europe has No Problems! -IFCN Wk 13 -Tue- Equity: $627.48

We had some serious down action in gold and silver today, along with many grain markets. When tons of funds and latecomers get into markets that have been hot for months, the days come when someone starts selling and more selling seems inevitable for a while.It is good to consider a few things about last week's action. Over the number of months the Eur/Usd attempted to approach the psychological

One Night Stand works as billed! -IFCN Wk 13 -Mon- Equity: $627.48

After the high flying week last week, the weekend served to push our OneNightStand trades even further. Which is the idea behind the robust trade concept.By our exit time on Monday morning @ 00:00 CST/ 01:00 EST/ 06:00 GMT, we achieved the following results:OneNightStand 02/29/08 entries held over the weekend: gbp/jpy: Sold @ 207.94, exit @ 204.61 for 333 pips profitusd/chf: Sold @ 1.0484, exit

Dollar melt down! All New Total Equity Peak--IFCN Wk 12 -Fri- Equity: $623.28

We have reached a key point this week. We have survived our first major drawdown and succeeded in attaining new equity highs!What you find out the longer you trade is the single solitary fact-- you spend the majority of your time with substantially less wealth than you've had in the past. Drawdowns occupy more than 95% of your trading life. Get used to it. I did, but I still don't like

Alpha account is up 22 percent-- --IFCN Wk 12 -Thu- Equity: $593.66

What great action this week! The account is sitting at $593.66 current equity, including unrealized profits!This is what the currency markets look like when they want to go somewhere. If the Usd/Jpy short had been entered, we would have had another 250 pips.FirstStrike trade status this week:Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 210.64, stopped out @ 211.24 for a 60 pip loss.Usd/Jpy: Long @ 107.91, exited @ 107.67

Quick! Adapt or Perish!--IFCN Wk 12 -Wed- Equity: $563.78

The Alpha account had a very good day.It is currently at $563.78-- up more than $75 from last Friday.  We are still long Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd, and short Usd/Chf with substantial open profits. This week's volatility, in the currencies and other important markets highlights the question of why do traders do what they do? Almost all people trying to trade apparently do it to make gains or money on

Dollar hits an air pocket! IFCN Wk 12 -Tue- Equity: $536.24

Looks like a good week for FirstStrike so far. It took a while for the market pairs to pick a direction, but when they did-- we've gotten some line moves.A recap of our entries today:Usd/Jpy: Went long yesterday @ 107.91, exited today @ 107.67 for 24 pip loss. I simply got out early. The market failed at an area it should have held if it was going to go higher. I saw no reason to take a

Gbp/Jpy first to lose again! -IFCN Wk 12 -Mon- Equity: $479.34

A very quiet start to our week. I exited Friday's short Usd/Chf OneNightStand trade for a 8 pip loss on Monday's open.We've gotten 2 entries early Monday and are still live on one of them, and waiting for direction in the other pairs.-----Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 210.64, stopped out @ 211.24 for a 60 pip loss.Usd/Jpy: Long @ 107.91, stop 107.31. Currently holding a small profit....=====Any FirstStrike

Woody Allen said - 90 percent of life is just showing up- IFCN Wk 11 -Fri- Equity: $486.25

Woody Allen may not be a trader, but he knows the right ingredients to success.We had another week with 5 FirstStrike losses.There was some fairly decent action at the beginning of the week, but no follow-through. Perhaps next week.The business of trading is more mental discipline of taking trades than nearly any other factor. Plus decent money management when you actually get your trade

Ben says- "It's Just Some Campers Grilling Some Steaks"-IFCN Wk 11 -Thu- Equity: $484.40

Have you ever tried fundamental trading in Forex? By this I mean trading on the news released and doing the whole "macro" thing-- trying to figure out how the different financial bodies of the the different major countries all interact.I'm sure there is somebody out there who is successful at it, but it must be tiring. Especially when most of the moving lips out there are lying.Example:The Fed

Rangebound forex trade while oil surges! -- IFCN Wk 11 -Tue- Equity: $509.19

Still cold outside up here in Minnesota. -3 degrees Fahrenheit. With wind it has a wind chill of -30. Crude oil roared to new historic highs, over 100 dollars a barrel.  Makes you think about the value of everything you own.  Obviously everyone else is thinking that.  The markets act as if there is another shoe to drop somewhere. And the forex markets are still ranging.  They won't for very much

Week starts out with small gains -- IFCN Wk 11 -Mon- Equity: $517.10

The weather is cold but clear here in Minnesota, but the markets are getting interesting.Even though the US market was observing President's day today, FirstStrike trades went off as usual due to continuing trade and news releases in Europe.We got 5 quick entries early this morning and are still live on all of them, with a standing loss in only one pair, the Eud/Usd.-----Eur/Usd: short @ 1.4631,

End of Week Recap -- IFCN Wk 10 -Fri- Equity: $508.87

This was a simple week, I got 5 FirstStrike trades that got stopped out quickly.Perhaps next week will be more interesting.This week's Alpha account trading recap:Start of week equity: $524.38Completed FirstStrike trades:EUR/USD: Short @ 1.4504, -stopped out 60 pips lossGBP/JPY: Short @ 208.05, -stopped out 60 pips lossGBP/USD: Short @ 1.9422, -stopped out 60 pips lossUSD/CHF: Long @ 1.1043, -

"I'm waiting." -- IFCN Wk 10 -Thu- Equity: $508.87

It is extremely unlikely that there will be any OneNightStand trades this week. All of the pairs are a substantial distance away from the breakout points that would indicate ONS trades. But we will watch anyway.The carry trade is beginning to pick up again on the GBP/JPY pair among others. In the very long term picture the GBP/JPY pair is in an uptrend and we have seen a very large correstion

I Had to Take an Extra Trade! -- IFCN Wk 10 -Wed- Equity: $508.87

I couldn't help myself.  When I see money just laying there on the ground, I have to pick it up.In the midst of my trading day, I was handed a "Sure Breakout" trade that I couldn't resist to take in the Forex Challenge account. It was a breakout from a very narrow 66 pip / 40 hour range in the USD/CHF pair. I bought 1425 units of USD/CHF @1.1042 and exited @ 1.1102 for a targeted 60 pips. The

A Useful Phenomena! IFCN Wk 10 -Tue- Equity: $501.11

Followers of FirstStrike now have the rest of their week free. 5 trades and stoplosses taken in quick order. This is also a good time to mention a side benefit that this style of breakout trading can bring to a certain segment of trader.  Maybe you!Current Equity: $501.11On Monday we got filled on the following FirstStrike trades:eud/usd: SELL 1.4504, stop 1.4564. Had 23 pips of profit

Your ability to wait for trades is your greatest edge-- IFCN Wk 9 -Fri- Equity: $524.38 - 6.29% increase

This is a good time to mention a bit about the psychology of trading through ugly markets or any markets which are not offering you much profits over a period of time.It is psychologically difficult for a person to experience loss after loss week after week. Especially when one sees so much motion in the market which tends to imply to the ego that there is so much opportunity being missed.

Another other shoe to drop? -- IFCN Wk 9 -Thu- Equity: $531.23

We really did get a nice move in the EUR/USD this week.  It's about time. My money management algorithm placed a bit more size on the EUR/USD and USD/CHF than on the other pairs, so I am up fairly good going into Friday.I will repeat the one constant among traders. You never have enough size on the winners. But I always try....Also, there is a possibility of one or two OneNightStand orders

"Read your way to profits?" -- IFCN Wk 9 -Wed- Equity: $508.27

Yesterday a subscriber emailed me asking if there were any other books I recommend to read that might help improve the mindset of a trader. Yes. One I heartily recommend is "The Black Swan" by Nassim Taleb. If any of you have read his earlier work, "Fooled by Randomness", you will be prepared for his unorthodox style for relaying ideas that are not common to a typical education. (Note: I urge

The Calm before the Storm....-- IFCN Wk 9 -Mon- Equity: $494.58

Early this morning we entered the GBP/USD and GBP/JPY and that has been it so far. Our other pairs are rangebound and it is the way they've been rangebound that is interesting. Very tight ranges. The longer we go in the week before a trade the more likely we will have a decisive move.gbp/jpy: BUY @ 210.53, stop 209.93. gbp/usd: BUY @ 1.9713, stop 1.9653. The current account equity stands

"Any Forex trade you can walk away..." IFCN Wk 8 -Fri- Equity: $493.33

Like a plane crash, any week of trading you can walk away from and come back the next week..., is a good week.We ended up with 6 losses out of our 7 trades. It would have been nicer if the ratio was reversed, but you get the results the market gives you. And then you take the trades again the next week.This week's Alpha account trading recap:Start of week equity: $514.88Completed FirstStrike

"Your Mindset Edge"... IFCN Wk 8 -Thu- Equity: $523.81

So far the week has been profitable, even with the 3 losses. Tomorrow should be interesting. The Nonfarm Employment Change report is due at 7:30 CST. With the Euro and Swiss franc at record levels, strong movement is expected. The big question is, which way?No idea what will happen for sure, but the OneNightStand orders for the two most likely pairs are as follows:eud/usd: BUY 1.4916, stop

"Ben Benanke Breakout"... IFCN Wk 8 -Wed- Equity: $524.65

Almost sounds like a title to a song....We had an interesting but definitely tradeable reaction to the interest rate announcement today at 13:15 CST. Many of the primary pairs formed pennant formations just prior to the breakout. An example of the formation from another site. Most forex traders have heard of or traded pennant formations, which look like triangles on a chart. When one side of

"Holy Grail"..... Wk 8 -Tue- Equity: $517.33

I got a nice call today from one of this blog's subscribers about the "holy grail" of trading.-G- has been searching for the best forex system he can find that will virtually guarantee a winner after a setup is identified.  I told him that he was in multitudinous company. Many traders or market researchers see all the swinging going on among all the different markets. They figure that with all

Forex Challenge: Wk 8 -Mon- Equity: $519.75

Hi fellow traders:I had a great weekend, the weather was nice and I got the rare chance to walk around a nearby lake. Just about any place in Minneapolis ("The City of Lakes") has a nearby lake, which helps one's mood in the spring, summer and fall. Winter is just cold.Except in the Forex markets.FirstStrike entered short the GBP/JPY pair soon after midnight CST. And got stopped out shortly

Forex Challenge: Wk 7 -Fri- Equity: $514.88

It was a another week of drawdowns after a nice, but brief runup in equity.These are typical actions of a market that is making up its mind to start trending. That is why you have to be vigilant to put in your orders and not miss the trades that pull you out of the drawdown.There were no OneNightStand trades executed this week, as was expected. The trading pairs we are following made some key

Forex Challenge: Wk 7 -Thur- Equity: $514.88

---Here is an interesting cartoon---The forex market seems to have figured out what it wants to do-- for now. Important looking bottoms have been set by the GBP and EUD pairs since the Tuesday surprise 75 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve.It is doubtful that any OneNightStand trades will be executed, but the orders are placed.We will recap tomorrow.Joel Rensinkwww.infiniteyield.comPS:

Forex Challenge: Wk 7 -Wed- Equity DOWN: $514.88

Hi, fellow trading masochists-The difference a day can make.  (I know I've said that before.  It will be said many times!)When I made the last post, the FirstStrike trades were all profitable. At one point the account was up almost $40.Then within a few more hours, all of the trades were stopped out. The current equity stands at $514.88. I lost 60 pips each on 4 of the trades, with the GBP/JPY

Forex Challenge: Wk 7 -Mon- Equity UP: $567.75

Hi readers:The only thing you can do that can change your outcomes, whether it be in life, your job, your marriage-- or trading; is execute as you have planned.Lack of planning is the greatest pitfall in achieving greatness. I got an email from a reader of this blog with this question:What is the procedure to follow if you miss your entry on FirstStrike or OneNightStand? Is it ok to place a

Week 6 - Fri- Current Equity: $533.55

This week showed a good example of how a loss protection scheme can affect a week's results.Earlier in the week when the GBP/JPY had more than 500 pips profit I went to a breakeven stop on half of the position and trailed the other half at the 50% point of maximum achieved profits on the position.The market was volatile, retraced 50% of its maximum profit point quickly, and then continued all the

Week 6 - Thu- Current Equity: $526.65

Hi all:Got stopped out on the short GBP/JPY at breakeven on the second half of my position @ 212.37. The other half was liberated with good profits @ 209.66 due to my personal 50%-of-profits rule mentioned Wednesday. Volatility is something this week has had plenty of.  Even so, it is unlikely that any OneNightStand trades will be executed on Friday.I'll recap tomorrow.Joel

Week 6 - Wed- Current Equity: $528.45

I'm not sure I have mentioned on this blog what the very first rule of successful trading is.SURVIVE! If you can survive trading each week, you have the real opportunity to make it into markets that can enrich you. This week gives us a good lesson of why it pays to watch what's going on, and an old but durable way to minimize your risk while allowing large gains.I am still short GBP/JPY and USD/

Week 6 - Mon- Current Equity: $521.05

It's a new week.  The markets are not a lot different from last week.  Directionless trade prevails.FirstStrike got trades shortly after midnight on all of the pairs.  So far only one pair is stopped out, the GBP/USD bought @ 1.9644 with a stop at 1.9584.The other current FirstStrike trades are as follows:eud/usd:  bought @1.4865, stop 1.4805. gbp/jpy:   sold @212.40, stop 213.00.usd/chf:   

Week 5 - Fri- Current Equity: $522.80

Hi everyone:This seemed like a very long week for some reason.There was certainly volatility in the markets. Much more of it in the non-forex markets, but it had its choppy moves too.  Obviously. I keep hearing from fund traders about the stock market (and the stock futures arm, the indexes) and how violent it has been to the downside. And those of us in the commodity sectors have been

Week 5 - Wed- Current Equity: $534.80

Hi everyone!I've been getting a lot of phone calls from large futures and forex traders who are not enjoying the choppy trade we've been having.I can't blame them, as I don't appreciate it much either. The sure thing about it is, when everyone is about ready to take a break from trading, the market seems to clear up and starts moving directionally again.Just another example of the perversity of

Week 5 - Tues- Current Equity: $533.10

Hi fellow forex traders:The market is still trying to digest what Friday's employment numbers really mean for the world, and what is going on with the pre-election posturing by Hillary and Obama. Obama is good for the stability of the market and Hillary is not good for it. My view of course, but I've tended to be right in the past on these issues.It is interesting to hear what the "big" talking

Week 5 - Mon- Current Equity: $546.40

There were no OneNightStand trades exiting this morning.The weather is getting nice here in Minnesota for a few days. Always like to have chance to step out for a walk after trading all day, and not have to wear tons of clothing.Within a couple of hours after the beginning of the week we had FirstStrike entries on all of our pairs. By mid-morning three of the trades were stopped out. For a

Week 4 - Fri- Current Equity: $563.75

Hi everyone:This week was the beginning of a long year, one that should be very exciting for the watchers of the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge. The dollar is being buffeted and is charging back and forth energetically enough to test just about any trader's mettle. This action inevitably turns into trending action and we shall try to make the best of it when it comes.We got to start off the year

Week 4 - Thu- Current Equity: $569.19

I finally did get stopped out of the EUD/USD for a 60 pip loss. A total of 5 FirstStrike trades and 5 losses. That is the way trading works some weeks. And, probably no correlation at all, but losses are losses; I had a flat tire today because of below zero weather..., and running on it a short distance to a safe get-off spot destroyed the tire. Had to buy 2 of them to balance them out. I hate

Week 4 - Wed- Current Equity: $572.34

-Best wishes on a new trading year!!!!This is Wednesday, January 2nd. First official trading day of the new year.Congratulations on all of you making it to the new year intact. This should be a very exciting year. The markets are charging around like wild animals- right out of the gate. That is a very good sign.The latest newsletter went out Dec. 31st and I got some nice comments about it. If